Autodesk (ADSK) has just been reshuffled across several Russell indices, including additions to the Russell Midcap Growth and Russell 1000 Defensive indices, while also announcing a US$350 million commitment to global AI-focused education.
See our latest analysis for Autodesk.
At a share price of US$194.42, Autodesk has seen its 7 day share price return rise 2.99%. However, the 30 day and year to date share price returns are down 15.95% and 32.19% respectively, while the 1 year total shareholder return is down 37.62%. This suggests that recent index reshuffles and the AI education commitment are being weighed against a weaker recent share price trend.
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With Autodesk trading at an apparent discount to some valuation estimates while its share price performance over 1 and 5 years has been weak, the key question is whether this is a reset that creates a buying opportunity or if the market already reflects its future growth.
Most Popular Narrative: 39% Undervalued
Autodesk's most followed narrative anchors fair value at $318.53, well above the recent $194.42 close, framing the current weakness against a much higher long term potential path.
Accelerating adoption of cloud-based platforms, such as Autodesk Construction Cloud and Fusion 360, and ongoing rollout of subscription and SaaS models are increasing recurring revenue, improving revenue visibility, and enhancing net margin stability due to higher operating leverage and sales efficiency improvements.
Curious what underpins that gap between fair value and today’s price? The narrative leans heavily on earnings expansion, margin uplift, and a richer future earnings multiple. The specific mix of growth, profitability and discount rate assumptions is where the real story sits.
Result: Fair Value of $318.53 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, there are still clear pressure points for Autodesk, including slower core trends and questions over whether the US$3.6b MaintainX deal will ultimately support margins.
Find out about the key risks to this Autodesk narrative.
Next Steps
Given the mix of concern and optimism around Autodesk, it makes sense to review the underlying data yourself and move quickly to shape your own view by checking the 4 key rewards.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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