CACI International (CACI) continues to draw attention after a mixed stretch for the stock, with gains over the past month alongside a decline over the past 3 months. This performance has prompted fresh interest in its valuation and earnings profile.
See our latest analysis for CACI International.
The recent 7 day share price return of 4.7% has come after a 90 day share price decline of 16.7%, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 26.1% points to longer term momentum that remains intact.
If you are comparing CACI with other opportunities in similar areas, it can help to widen the view and scan 20 top founder-led companies
With revenue of US$9.16b and net income of US$536.91m, CACI sits at the intersection of government technology and defense spending. Is the current share price overlooking that earnings base, or already pricing in future growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 26% Undervalued
With CACI International last closing at $524.92 against a narrative fair value of $709.23, the most followed thesis sees meaningful upside still embedded in its earnings power.
The ongoing consolidation of government legacy systems and rising demand for digital transformation (as exemplified by CACI's role in Army system consolidation and NASA NCAPS implementation) position the company to capture more long-term, mission-critical contracts, enhancing both revenue visibility and net margins.
Want to see what underpins that valuation gap? The narrative focuses on steady contract wins, thicker margins, and a richer earnings multiple. The full breakdown explains the growth and profitability path behind that fair value.
Result: Fair Value of $709.23 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, that upside view still bumps up against real risks, including CACI's heavy dependence on U.S. government budgets and ongoing pressure from competition for high value contracts.
Find out about the key risks to this CACI International narrative.
Another View: What P/E Says About CACI
While the SWS DCF model points to upside, the simpler P/E check paints a tighter picture. CACI trades at 21.6x earnings, above the US Professional Services industry at 19.6x, peers at 19.7x, and a fair ratio of 20.2x, which hints at less room for error if growth disappoints.
For a closer look at how that earnings multiple stacks up and what the numbers imply for valuation risk, have a look at the See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
With sentiment split between opportunity and risk, it makes sense to go straight to the source data and pressure test the assumptions for yourself. To see both sides clearly, review the 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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