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To justify owning Copart, you need to believe its global salvage marketplace can keep converting steady vehicle flows into attractive, fee driven earnings over time. The latest quarter’s almost flat EPS and modest revenue uptick do not materially change that thesis, but they do sharpen the near term focus on volume trends as a key catalyst and on cost inflation and competitive pressure as the most immediate risks.
The recent expansion of Copart’s US$1,250 million unsecured revolving credit facility, which can be used for capital expenditure, acquisitions and potential buybacks, is particularly relevant here. Against a backdrop of largely flat nine month revenue and earnings, this financing flexibility may matter for how Copart supports capacity, technology and shareholder returns if unit growth or insurance channel volumes become more volatile.
Yet beneath the stability in recent EPS, investors should be aware that Copart’s dependence on insurer supplied total loss vehicles leaves it exposed if...
Read the full narrative on Copart (it's free!)
Copart's narrative projects $5.6 billion revenue and $1.8 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 6.6% yearly revenue growth and roughly a $0.2 billion earnings increase from $1.6 billion today.
Uncover how Copart's forecasts yield a $42.44 fair value, a 30% upside to its current price.
While consensus views this quarter as a pause, the most optimistic analysts were once assuming US$6.0 billion of revenue and US$1.9 billion of earnings by 2028, so you should weigh those upbeat expectations against the risk that sustained insurance volume declines could force a rethink of how quickly Copart’s marketplace can grow.
Explore 13 other fair value estimates on Copart - why the stock might be worth 8% less than the current price!
Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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