Elon Musk’s SpaceX has confidentially filed its IPO paperwork with the SEC, putting the company on track for a potential July listing that could raise between $40 billion and $80 billion. That would dwarf Saudi Aramco’s $29 billion debut in 2019 as the largest IPO ever.
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The filing will force SpaceX to open its books for the first time. The space side reportedly cleared around $8 billion in profit on $15 billion to $16 billion in revenue last year, nearly all of it Starlink.
Then there’s xAI, folded in through February’s $1.25 trillion merger and burning roughly $1 billion a month with all the original co-founders already out the door. The IPO roadshow is a pitch that Starlink’s margins can carry xAI’s ambitions long enough for orbital data centers to become real.
Prediction Markets Are Already Moving
Polymarket’s closing market cap contract prices a 51% chance SpaceX finishes its first trading day valued between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion.
Polymarket traders give a 28% chance that the IPO is complete by June 15, a 62% chance by June 30, and a 94% chance by the end of the year.
Even straightforward IPOs take months to clear the SEC, and packaging rockets, satellites, defense contracts and a cash-burning AI lab into a single S-1 is anything but straightforward.
What Traders Are Watching
SpaceX would be the first of three potential mega-IPOs in 2026. OpenAI and Anthropic are both reportedly weighing offerings before year-end.
Nasdaq recently announced rule changes that could allow SpaceX to join the Nasdaq 100 within 15 days of listing, triggering billions in forced buying from index-tracking funds.
Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Citigroup (NYSE:C) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) are leading the offering, with E*Trade reportedly angling to lead the retail portion. Musk has suggested up to 30% of shares could go to retail investors.
For investors looking for exposure now, EchoStar Corp (NASDAQ:SATS) holds a SpaceX stake acquired through spectrum sales originally valued at $11.1 billion.
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) remains the most liquid Musk-adjacent trade.
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