Stocks surged on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 up more than 2% and the Nasdaq gaining over 3%, as President Donald Trump told aides he would consider ending the war in Iran even without reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
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Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian added fuel to the rally, saying that Iran was open to ending the conflict, provided it receives guarantees against future aggression. Oil pulled back to around $102 per barrel.
But Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, CEO of MCC Global Enterprises, went on CNBC’s Power Lunch and argued the ceasefire optimism may be a head-fake.
The Leadership Problem
Caruso-Cabrera’s core argument is that nobody knows who is actually running Iran.
Mojtaba Khamenei was named Supreme Leader on March 8, but she noted there are reports that the new Supreme Leader may already be in a coma. He is a 56-year-old cleric who never held government office before inheriting a country at war.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X that Iran’s “decentralized Mosaic Defense” means bombings in the capital “have no impact on our ability to conduct war,” suggesting military operations continue regardless of what the president, who is not in the IRGC, says.
She said the reports of a potential deal are “likely true” but questioned whether they are “meaningful.” Her read is that both sides are buying time.
The Military Objective Is Not Complete
Caruso-Cabrera pointed to the original U.S. military objective: stopping Iran from projecting power. That mission predates any diplomatic off-ramp and extends beyond nuclear sites to the IRGC’s naval capabilities, proxy networks and missile infrastructure. She does not think the U.S. will stop until that mission is complete.
She pointed to Operation Midnight Hammer as evidence. Last June, the U.S. hit Iran’s nuclear sites with B-2s and bunker busters. Trump declared the program “obliterated,” then spent months pursuing talks. Those talks collapsed. On Feb. 28, 2026, Operation Epic Fury launched. The “deal is close” headlines preceded the last escalation, not a resolution.
What Prediction Markets Say
The Strait of Hormuz normalization market gives only a 25% chance that traffic returns to normal by the end of April.
The odds of a ceasefire by the end of April did not move meaningfully, still at 39%. The odds rise to 64% for June 30, and 78% by the end of the year.
Polymarket traders still think U.S. troops will enter Iran. The odds of boots on the ground are at 56% by April 30, and 68% by the end of the year.
If these prediction markets are accurate, the war will last longer than the market is currently pricing in.
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