- If you are wondering whether Expeditors International of Washington is fairly priced or if the market is overlooking something, this article focuses squarely on what you are getting for the current share price.
- The stock last closed at US$141.22, with returns of 19.4% over 1 year, 32.9% over 3 years and 37.5% over 5 years. Year to date, the share price shows a 7.0% decline, including a 3.5% decline over the past week and 2.6% over the past month.
- Recent news coverage has largely centered on the company’s role in global logistics and trade flows, which helps frame how investors think about its resilience and sensitivity to freight volumes. This context is important when you judge whether recent share price moves reflect changing sentiment on the business or simply shorter term market swings.
- Simply Wall St’s valuation checks give Expeditors International of Washington a score of 1 out of 6. Next comes a closer look at how different valuation approaches assess the shares and, finally, an even more rounded way to think about value that goes beyond just the numbers.
Expeditors International of Washington scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
Approach 1: Expeditors International of Washington Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company might be worth by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those back to today’s value. It is essentially asking what the stream of future cash that Expeditors International of Washington could generate is worth in today’s dollars.
For Expeditors International of Washington, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is about $959.0 million. Analysts provide cash flow estimates for the next few years, and those are extended further using Simply Wall St’s 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model. Within this framework, projected Free Cash Flow for 2035 is $1,194.6 million, with interim years such as 2026 and 2027 estimated at $805.4 million and $876.8 million respectively, all in dollar terms.
After discounting this stream of projected cash flows back to today, the model produces an estimated intrinsic value of $157.49 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $141.22, this estimate implies the shares trade at a 10.3% discount to the DCF value on this metric.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Expeditors International of Washington is undervalued by 10.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 62 more high quality undervalued stocks.
Approach 2: Expeditors International of Washington Price vs Earnings
For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a useful yardstick because it links what you pay directly to the earnings the business is generating today. It gives a quick sense of how many dollars investors are willing to pay for each dollar of current earnings.
What counts as a "normal" P/E ratio often reflects expectations for future growth and the risk investors see in those earnings. Higher expected growth and lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk usually calls for a lower multiple.
Expeditors International of Washington currently trades on a P/E of 23.18x. That sits above the Logistics industry average of 15.39x and also above the broader peer average of 19.80x. Simply Wall St’s proprietary Fair Ratio for the stock is 17.23x, which is the P/E level suggested after considering factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margin, market cap and risk profile.
The Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or the industry because it adjusts for company specific traits rather than assuming one size fits all. Compared with this Fair Ratio of 17.23x, the current P/E of 23.18x points to the shares trading on a richer multiple than the model suggests.
Result: OVERVALUED
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose Your Expeditors International of Washington Narrative
Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives bring your view of Expeditors International of Washington together in one place by linking the story you believe, the revenue, earnings and margin forecasts that fit that story, and the fair value that results from those numbers.
On Simply Wall St, Narratives sit inside the Community page and are used by many investors as an accessible tool. You can see different fair values, compare them with the current share price, and decide for yourself whether the gap between price and value looks attractive or not.
Each Narrative updates automatically as new information such as earnings or news is released. Your fair value and the way it compares to the live price are kept current without you needing to rebuild a model every time something changes.
For Expeditors International of Washington, one investor might focus on steady global trade and assign a higher fair value, while another might focus on freight volume pressure and choose a lower fair value. Both views can sit side by side as separate Narratives you can review.
Do you think there's more to the story for Expeditors International of Washington? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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