- If you are wondering whether Greif is offering fair value at its recent price, this breakdown will help you see how the current share level stacks up against several valuation checks.
- The stock recently closed at US$66.37, with a 6.0% return over the past 7 days, an 8.7% decline over 30 days, a 3.0% decline year to date, and a 25.2% gain over the past year, which may influence how you think about both upside potential and risk.
- Those swings sit alongside a longer track record, with returns of 15.8% over 3 years and 35.4% over 5 years helping to frame how the market has treated the shares over time. Together, these figures give helpful context before comparing the current price to different measures of value.
- Right now Greif has a valuation score of 2 out of 6, which means it screens as undervalued on 2 of the 6 standard checks, and the next sections will walk through those methods while also pointing to a deeper way to think about what the stock may be worth by the end of this article.
Greif scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
Approach 1: Greif Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company could be worth by projecting future cash flows and discounting them back to today, to account for the time value of money and risk.
For Greif, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of $142.82 million, so the valuation leans heavily on expectations for future cash generation. Analyst and extrapolated forecasts point to free cash flow of $319.48 million in 2026, rising to an estimated $454.15 million in 2035, all in dollar terms and all below $1 billion, so still in the hundreds of millions range.
Discounting these projected cash flows back to today produces an estimated intrinsic value of $156.93 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $66.37, the DCF output implies the stock is 57.7% undervalued based on these assumptions.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Greif is undervalued by 57.7%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 62 more high quality undervalued stocks.
Approach 2: Greif Price vs Earnings
For a profitable company like Greif, a P/E ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of earnings, because it connects the share price directly to the business’s current profit base.
What counts as a “normal” P/E ratio usually reflects how the market views a company’s growth potential and risk profile. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can support a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk tends to justify a lower one.
Greif currently trades on a P/E of 20.31x. That sits above the Packaging industry average P/E of 15.38x and above the peer group average of 16.82x, so on simple comparisons the shares trade at a richer multiple than many sector peers.
Simply Wall St’s “Fair Ratio” for Greif is 17.19x. This is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E might be, given factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margin, market cap and risk. Because it blends these company specific drivers, it can be more tailored than a plain comparison with peers or the broad industry, which may not share the same growth outlook, size or risk profile.
Comparing Greif’s current P/E of 20.31x with the Fair Ratio of 17.19x suggests the shares screen as overvalued on this metric.
Result: OVERVALUED
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Greif Narrative
Earlier the article mentioned that there is an even better way to think about valuation. This is where Narratives come in, giving you a simple story that links your view on Greif to a forecast and then to a fair value that you can compare with the current price.
A Narrative on Simply Wall St is your own version of Greif’s story. You set assumptions for future revenue, earnings and margins, then see what fair value those numbers support instead of relying only on headline ratios like the current P/E of 20.31x versus a Fair Ratio of 17.19x.
Within the Community page on Simply Wall St, Narratives are available as an easy tool used by millions of investors. They help you see how a bullish view on Greif might line up with a fair value around US$96.00, while a more cautious view might sit closer to US$60.00, and how those compare with the latest market price.
Because Narratives update as new earnings, news and analyst targets come through, they can keep your Greif story current and support your decisions about whether the gap between Fair Value and Price looks wide enough to act on or small enough to wait.
For Greif however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Greif Narratives:
Each one connects a clear story about the business to specific assumptions on growth, margins and valuation, so you can see which version lines up closest with your own expectations.
Fair value: US$96.00
Implied undervaluation vs last close: 30.9%
Revenue growth assumption: 2.16%
- Expects cost optimisation and the Greif Business System to support higher margins and stronger free cash flow over time, building on a US$100 million efficiency programme and more than 70 identified work streams.
- Assumes exposure to markets such as agrochemicals, pharma and food and beverage, plus a long record of sustainability reporting, positions Greif to win more volume and pricing where environmental standards and supply chain resilience matter.
- Frames a US$96.00 fair value around bullish analyst assumptions for revenue of US$4.6b, earnings of US$296.8 million and a 21.5x P/E by 2029, all discounted back using a 7.19% rate.
Fair value: US$60.00
Implied overvaluation vs last close: 10.6%
Revenue growth assumption: 0.78%
- Highlights that growth capex into areas like small format plastics and barrier technology is being deployed against a muted demand backdrop, which may limit pricing power and weigh on returns if volumes stay soft.
- Flags that much of the easy margin improvement could already be captured through cost optimisation and headcount reductions, which would leave future EBITDA more sensitive if end markets such as fiber, steel and chemicals remain subdued.
- Anchors a US$60.00 fair value on bearish analyst assumptions for roughly flat revenue, earnings of US$280.8 million by 2029 and a 12.0x P/E multiple, using a 7.21% discount rate and allowing for ongoing buybacks that modestly reduce the share count.
Both narratives use the same share price history and the same underlying company data, but they weight the opportunities and risks differently so you can decide which story feels more realistic for your own analysis.
Do you think there's more to the story for Greif? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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