- Wondering whether Autodesk at around US$229.84 is priced attractively or asking too much for its future? This article walks through the key numbers so you can judge the current tag for yourself.
- The stock has seen a 7.3% decline over the last 7 days, while the 30 day return is 2.2% and the year to date return is 19.8% lower, with a 12.2% decline over the past year and a 10.4% gain across three years.
- These moves are playing out against a backdrop of ongoing attention on Autodesk's role in design and software markets, along with regular reassessment of its long term prospects by market participants. Recent coverage has focused on how the current share price lines up with expectations for the business and broader sector sentiment.
- Autodesk currently has a valuation score of 4 out of 6, suggesting some areas where it screens as undervalued and others where it looks more fully priced. The rest of this article will break that down using different valuation methods before finishing with a framework that can help you think about value in an even more complete way.
Find out why Autodesk's -12.2% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.
Approach 1: Autodesk Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow model projects a company’s future cash flows and then discounts those projected amounts back to today’s dollars to estimate what the business might be worth right now.
For Autodesk, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow sits at about $2.36b. Using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, analysts and extrapolated estimates point to projected Free Cash Flow of $4.79b in 2031, with a detailed path of annual projections between 2026 and 2035 supplied by Simply Wall St.
When these cash flows are discounted back using the DCF model, the estimated intrinsic value for Autodesk is about $383.16 per share, compared with a recent share price around $229.84. That gap implies the stock screens as roughly 40.0% undervalued on this DCF view.
This model suggests the current price reflects more cautious expectations than those used in the cash flow projections, which creates a valuation cushion for investors who are comfortable with the assumptions behind the forecast path.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Autodesk is undervalued by 40.0%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 61 more high quality undervalued stocks.
Approach 2: Autodesk Price vs Earnings (P/E)
For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a useful shorthand for how much you are paying for each dollar of earnings. This makes it a common anchor for assessing whether a stock price looks stretched or reasonable.
What counts as a “normal” P/E depends on what the market expects from a business and how risky those earnings appear. Higher growth and lower perceived risk usually support a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher uncertainty often line up with a lower P/E.
Autodesk currently trades on a P/E of 43.15x, compared with an average of 27.27x for the Software industry and about 50.68x across its peers. Simply Wall St also provides a proprietary “Fair Ratio” of 33.80x, which is the P/E level suggested after factoring in elements such as Autodesk’s earnings profile, industry, profit margins, market value and risk characteristics.
This Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple industry or peer comparison because it adjusts for the company’s own growth outlook, risk indicators and profitability, rather than assuming all software names should trade on the same multiple.
Since Autodesk’s current P/E of 43.15x sits above the Fair Ratio of 33.80x by a clear margin, this framework points to the shares screening as somewhat expensive on an earnings multiple basis.
Result: OVERVALUED
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Autodesk Narrative
Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives bring together your view of Autodesk’s story with your own assumptions for future revenue, earnings and margins, link that story to a financial forecast and a Fair Value, then compare it to the current price to help you decide how to act.
On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives are presented as an easy tool used by millions of investors. You can see different Fair Values for Autodesk that reflect distinct views, such as more bullish assumptions closer to US$413.07 or more cautious assumptions nearer to US$262.20.
Because each Narrative is tied to live forecasts instead of static text, it updates automatically when new information like earnings, guidance or news comes in. This helps your Fair Value view stay aligned with the latest Autodesk data rather than a one off calculation.
In practice, this means you can compare your preferred Autodesk Narrative’s Fair Value with the current share price around US$229.84 and decide whether the gap looks attractive, stretched or fairly balanced based on a story and forecast that match your own expectations.
Do you think there's more to the story for Autodesk? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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