Recent share performance and business snapshot
Lululemon athletica (LULU) has been on many investors’ radar after a stretch of weaker share performance, including a 3.7% daily decline and negative returns over the past week and month.
That pullback comes against a backdrop of annual revenue of US$11.1b and net income of US$1.6b, with reported annual growth in both revenue and net income alongside a value score of 4.
For readers comparing recent price action with the longer view, the stock shows negative total returns over the past 3 months, year, and 3 and 5 year periods, highlighting how sentiment has shifted despite the company’s current profit base.
See our latest analysis for lululemon athletica.
The recent 3.7% daily share price decline to US$145.85 sits within a broader loss of momentum, with a 30 day share price return of 20.1% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 50.23% pointing to extended weakness rather than a short term swing.
If this pullback has you reassessing your watchlist, it could be a good moment to broaden your research and uncover 20 top founder-led companies
With shares down sharply over the past year despite annual revenue of US$11.1b and net income of US$1.6b, the key question is whether lululemon is now undervalued or if markets are already pricing in expectations for its future growth.
Most Popular Narrative: 56.4% Undervalued
According to the most followed narrative, lululemon athletica’s fair value of $334.88 sits well above the last close at $145.85, setting up a sharp disconnect between current pricing and that narrative’s long term view.
Positive Analyst Ratings: Recent analyst upgrades and positive ratings reflect growing confidence in Lululemon’s future prospects. Analysts have highlighted the company’s strong growth trajectory, innovative product offerings, and effective management as key reasons for their bullish outlook.
Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.
Curious what justifies more than doubling the share price in that model? The narrative leans heavily on revenue expansion, firm profit margins and a future earnings multiple that assumes investors stay willing to pay up for this brand.
According to mschoen25, that valuation builds on specific assumptions about revenue growth, discount rate and profit margins, combined with a forward P/E that supports a fair value of $334.88 even as the market currently prices in weaker near term momentum. Result: Fair Value of $334.88 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this hinges on continued brand strength and execution, and weaker consumer demand or pressure on profit margins could quickly challenge such an upbeat valuation story.
Find out about the key risks to this lululemon athletica narrative.
Another view: SWS DCF model points the other way
That bullish fair value of $334.88 from the user narrative leans on growth and margins, but the SWS DCF model paints a different picture. On this approach, lululemon at $145.85 sits above an estimated future cash flow value of $135.32, which screens as overvalued. So which story do you trust more: the cash flows or the narrative multiple?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out lululemon athletica for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 61 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
With such a split between cash flow and narrative views, it pays to move quickly, review the underlying data yourself, and weigh both the 1 or more risks and 1 or more rewards highlighted in the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.
Looking for more investment ideas?
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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