Recent performance snapshot for Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) has seen mixed share performance recently, with a 1 day return of 1.08%, a 7 day gain of 2.96%, a 12.91% decline over the past month, and a 9.96% return in the past 3 months.
Over longer horizons, total returns stand at 9.94% year to date, 39.51% over the past year, 50.90% across 3 years, and 85.70% over 5 years. These figures provide investors with a sense of how the stock has behaved through different periods.
See our latest analysis for Freeport-McMoRan.
The recent 30 day share price return of 12.91% contrasts with a 9.96% gain over 3 months and a 39.51% 1 year total shareholder return. This suggests momentum has cooled in the short term, while longer term investors have still seen strong results.
If you are comparing Freeport-McMoRan with other copper producers, it can be helpful to scan the wider space using a focused screener such as the 8 top copper producer stocks
With Freeport McMoRan trading at $57.09 and indications of a possible intrinsic discount, investors may ask whether this copper giant is still undervalued or if the market is already pricing in the next leg of growth.
Most Popular Narrative: 29.5% Overvalued
According to the most followed narrative, Freeport McMoRan's fair value sits at $44.08, which is below the last close of $57.09, putting the current price above that narrative estimate.
U.S. legislation may classify copper as a "critical mineral", possibly introducing 10% tax credit
Assumptions
Where do you think revenue will be in 5 years time? and why?Revenue by 2029:
Estimate: ~$35 to 38 billion
Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.
Curious how a higher revenue base, a richer earnings profile, and a premium future multiple combine to justify that lower fair value mark and overvaluation call.
Result: Fair Value of $44.08 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this thesis can still be tested if copper prices weaken for a prolonged period or if regulatory decisions around copper’s “critical mineral” status do not materialise.
Find out about the key risks to this Freeport-McMoRan narrative.
Another View: Cash Flows Point To Undervaluation
While the most popular narrative sees Freeport McMoRan as 29.5% overvalued at $57.09 versus a $44.08 fair value, our DCF model points the other way. In this view, the shares trade 32.3% below an $84.33 estimate of future cash flow value, which raises the question of which story investors should pay more attention to.
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Freeport-McMoRan for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 55 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
Sentiment on Freeport McMoRan is clearly divided, so if you want to move quickly and form your own view, start by weighing the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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