Recent performance snapshot for Philip Morris International (PM)
Philip Morris International (PM) has drawn investor attention after recent share price weakness, with a 7 day return of about a 7% decline and a one month return of roughly an 11% decline from its last close of $163.11.
See our latest analysis for Philip Morris International.
The recent 7-day and 30-day share price declines sit against a steadier picture, with a modestly positive year-to-date share price return and a stronger multi-year total shareholder return, suggesting short-term momentum is fading while long-term holders have still seen meaningful gains.
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With recent short-term weakness set against multiyear gains, a roughly 20% discount to analyst targets, and an indicated intrinsic discount, is Philip Morris International undervalued today, or is the market already pricing in future growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 9.6% Undervalued
Philip Morris International's most followed narrative points to a fair value of about $180.38, compared with the recent close of $163.11. This puts the spotlight on the assumptions behind that gap.
The analysts have a consensus price target of $190.2 for Philip Morris International based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $220.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $153.0.
Curious what kind of revenue trajectory, margin profile, and future P/E multiple need to line up to support that fair value gap and the wide analyst range.
Result: Fair Value of $180.38 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, there is still meaningful risk that tougher regulation or higher taxes on smoke free products, and a structural decline in cigarettes, could pressure this valuation story.
Find out about the key risks to this Philip Morris International narrative.
Next Steps
Given the mix of optimism and concern running through this story, it makes sense to look at the full risk reward picture yourself and weigh it up against your own expectations using the 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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