- Wondering if Vulcan Materials at US$258.40 is priced for opportunity or already expensive? This breakdown focuses squarely on what you are getting for the price you pay.
- The stock has seen a 2.6% decline over the last 7 days and a 13.7% decline over the last 30 days, even though the 1 year return sits at 11.2% and the 3 year return at 59.0%.
- Recent coverage has highlighted Vulcan Materials as a key U.S. construction materials supplier, with investors watching how infrastructure spending and building activity influence cement, aggregates, and asphalt producers. These themes often shape sentiment around companies like Vulcan Materials and can feed into the kind of price swings seen in recent weeks.
- Vulcan Materials currently has a valuation score of 2 out of 6. The next sections will break down what that means across different valuation methods and then finish with a framework that can help you interpret these models in a more holistic way.
Vulcan Materials scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
Approach 1: Vulcan Materials Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a business might be worth by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those back to today’s dollars. It is essentially asking what Vulcan Materials’ future cash generation is worth right now.
For Vulcan Materials, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow sits at about $1.07b. Using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, analysts and extrapolated estimates project Free Cash Flow reaching around $2.29b in 2035. The ten year path includes analyst inputs for the earlier years and Simply Wall St extrapolations thereafter, all expressed in dollars and discounted to reflect the time value of money.
On this basis, the DCF model points to an estimated intrinsic value of about $270.72 per share, compared with the current share price of roughly $258.40. That implies the stock is about 4.6% undervalued, which is a relatively small gap and suggests pricing that is close to the model’s estimate of fair value.
Result: ABOUT RIGHT
Vulcan Materials is fairly valued according to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), but this can change at a moment's notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act.
Approach 2: Vulcan Materials Price vs Earnings
For profitable companies like Vulcan Materials, the P/E ratio is a useful shorthand for how much you are paying for each dollar of earnings. It lets you compare what the market is willing to pay for this earnings stream against other businesses and reference points.
What counts as a “normal” P/E depends on how the market views growth potential and risk. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher multiple, while slower growth or higher uncertainty usually lines up with a lower one.
Vulcan Materials currently trades on a P/E of 31.21x. That is above both the Basic Materials industry average P/E of 14.45x and a peer average of 23.50x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio framework estimates a P/E of 23.97x for Vulcan Materials, based on factors such as its earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and risk characteristics.
This Fair Ratio is designed to be more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or industry averages, because it adjusts for company specific features rather than assuming one size fits all. When set against the current 31.21x P/E, the 23.97x Fair Ratio points to the shares trading above this modelled fair multiple.
Result: OVERVALUED
P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 20 top founder-led companies.
Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Vulcan Materials Narrative
Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives bring this to life by letting you attach a clear story about Vulcan Materials to the numbers, linking your view on future revenue, earnings and margins to a financial forecast and then to a Fair Value that can be compared with the current price to help you judge whether the stock looks appealing or stretched for your own goals.
On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives are an easy to use tool that many investors already rely on. You can see and build different Vulcan Materials stories, from a more optimistic view that ties to a higher Fair Value estimate around US$375, through a mid range view near US$328, down to a more cautious stance closer to US$264. Each Narrative updates automatically as fresh news, earnings or guidance arrives so your Fair Value view stays aligned with the latest information.
Do you think there's more to the story for Vulcan Materials? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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