Compañía de Minas BuenaventuraA (BVN) has drawn attention after a recent pullback, with the stock showing a 20% decline over the past month while still carrying a 1-year total return above 100%.
See our latest analysis for Compañía de Minas BuenaventuraA.
The recent setback comes after a strong run, with a 1 year total shareholder return of 100.88% and a 3 year total shareholder return above 2x. At the same time, the 30 day share price return of 19.85% and 7 day share price return of 14.10% suggest momentum is currently fading around the latest close at $30.29.
If this kind of sharp move in a precious metals name has your attention, it could be worth scanning other producers via the 28 elite gold producer stocks
With shares at $30.29, a value score of 4, and an indicated discount to both analyst targets and intrinsic estimates, the key question is whether Buenaventura is still mispriced or if the market has already priced in future growth.
Most Popular Narrative: 18.1% Undervalued
Buenaventura's most followed valuation view pegs fair value at $36.98 using a 10.36% discount rate, compared with the latest close at $30.29, implying a meaningful gap.
The imminent start-up and ramp-up of the San Gabriel project, with first gold production targeted for Q4 2025 and stabilization by mid-2026, is set to meaningfully boost gold output and diversify the company's revenue streams at a time when ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty may increase gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, supporting both revenue and margins. Copper production from El Brocal is being strategically maximized, with a sustained focus on higher-grade and more gold/silver-rich mining zones; this positions Buenaventura to benefit from accelerating demand for copper driven by the global electrification and energy transition, directly supporting revenue growth and improved operating margins.
Curious what kind of revenue path, margin profile and future earnings multiple need to line up for that $36.98 figure to hold up? The narrative leans on specific production ramps, project timelines and a tighter range of profitability assumptions than you might expect, and it all feeds into that single fair value number.
Result: Fair Value of $36.98 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this fair value story still leans heavily on smooth execution at San Gabriel and Coimolache, as well as on managing cost pressure that has already affected copper.
Find out about the key risks to this Compañía de Minas BuenaventuraA narrative.
Next Steps
With both optimism and concern in the mix, it helps to see the full picture yourself and move before sentiment shifts again. Start with the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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