Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is down 2% compared to gold sliding 4% after the Federal Reserve delivered hawkish signals, an unusual reversal as Bitcoin typically underperforms the precious metal during risk-off moves.
The Unusual Outperformance
Positioning may explain the divergence as gold surged 90% over the past year and hit record highs in February before the Middle East conflict started.
That left it overbought and vulnerable. Bitcoin crashed 50% from October highs, leaving it oversold and ready to bounce.
Since the Iran war began, Bitcoin has been one of the strongest performing assets outside energy. Meanwhile gold sits 17% below its January peak, approaching bear-market territory.
The Macro Pressure
The Federal Reserve delivered a more hawkish-than-expected tone Wednesday, pushing back against market expectations for imminent interest-rate cuts.
This weighed on risk assets, with U.S. equities lower in premarket trading and the Invesco QQQ ETF falling 0.5% Thursday.
Moreover, crypto-related equities declined, with Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), Galaxy Digital (TSX:GLXY), and Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) all falling in premarket trading.
The Iran war pushed Brent crude oil up more than 6% in 24 hours to around $117 per barrel.
The widening gap between Brent and West Texas Intermediate, now the largest since 2013, signals global supply disruptions and logistical constraints, adding to inflationary pressures.
The Technical Setup
Bitcoin is staging a recovery attempt that stalled right into the confluence of the 20 EMA at $70,561, 50 EMA at $72,737, and the descending Supertrend line.
This cluster between $70,000-$73,000 acted as a hard ceiling.
The Supertrend at $66,129 recently flipped bullish, one of the few constructive signals on the chart.
A daily close below $66,000 invalidates the recovery structure entirely and reopens the path toward $60,000. The 100 EMA at $78,997 remains the real threshold for any trend reversal.
Additionally, after seven consecutive days of inflows, March 18 printed a $129.62 million net outflow led by Fidelity’s FBTC (BATS:FBTC) shedding $103.84 million.
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