Recent share performance and business snapshot
Under Armour (UAA) has had a mixed run recently, with the stock down over the past month but positive over the past 3 months. This may prompt investors to reassess the story.
The company generated revenue of about US$4.98b and reported a net loss of roughly US$519.71 million, while long term total returns over 3 and 5 years have been negative. This highlights ongoing turnaround questions.
See our latest analysis for Under Armour.
At a share price of US$6.49, Under Armour’s 90 day share price return of 49.88% and year to date gain of 22.68% suggest short term momentum. However, the 1 year total shareholder return decline of 3.13% and deeper multi year losses point to a still cautious longer term picture.
If you are reassessing your exposure to consumer names, it could be a good moment to broaden your search with Simply Wall St’s 18 top founder-led companies.
With Under Armour trading at US$6.49 and an indicated intrinsic discount of about 40%, plus a discount to analyst targets, the key question is whether this is a genuine value gap or if the market already reflects future growth.
Most Popular Narrative: 16.1% Undervalued
At $6.49, the most followed narrative sees fair value closer to $7.73, using a 10.45% discount rate and a detailed set of cash flow and earnings assumptions.
The ongoing transformation to a brand-first strategy, with a focus on premiumization, tighter SKU assortments, and greater brand storytelling, positions Under Armour to increase average selling prices, improve full-price sell-through, and reduce reliance on discounting, which should positively impact net margins and long-term earnings growth.
Want to see what has to happen for that higher value to make sense? The narrative links steady revenue progress, fatter margins, and a future earnings multiple that needs to hold up. Curious what combination of growth, profitability and valuation gets you to $7.73?
Result: Fair Value of $7.73 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this depends on Under Armour containing margin pressure from tariffs and softer demand, as well as avoiding prolonged weakness in footwear that could limit any re-rating.
Find out about the key risks to this Under Armour narrative.
Next Steps
If the mixed signals in this story leave you unsure, take a moment to act promptly and check the numbers yourself to shape your own view. You can start with our breakdown of 3 key rewards.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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