- Investors may be wondering if Bristow Group at around US$42.99 is offering good value right now, or if the recent run has already priced in the key positives.
- The stock has pulled back over the last week and month, with 7 day and 30 day returns of a 3.5% decline and a 4.0% decline, but it still sits on gains of 15.1% year to date, 39.0% over the past year, 95.9% over three years, and 67.0% over five years.
- Recent attention on Bristow Group has been driven by its role within the energy and aviation services space, as investors reassess companies that support offshore and remote operations. That shift in focus has helped frame the recent price moves as part of a broader reassessment of the sector rather than a short term trading story.
- On our checklist of valuation signals, Bristow Group scores a full 6 out of 6. This sets up an interesting comparison across traditional tools like P/E and cash flow based models. We will also finish by looking at a more complete way to think about value than any single metric alone.
Find out why Bristow Group's 39.0% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.
Approach 1: Bristow Group Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company could be worth by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those back into today’s dollars.
For Bristow Group, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, based on last twelve month free cash flow of about $28.6 million and a series of projected cash flows supplied by analysts and extended further out by Simply Wall St. For example, the projections include free cash flow of $148.9 million in 2026 and $199.9 million in 2028, with further years extrapolated through to 2035.
Bringing all those projected cash flows back to today, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $150.11 per share. Compared with the current share price around $42.99, the model implies Bristow Group is trading at a 71.4% discount to this estimate. On this approach, the stock screens as materially undervalued.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Bristow Group is undervalued by 71.4%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 47 more high quality undervalued stocks.
Approach 2: Bristow Group Price vs Earnings
For a profitable company like Bristow Group, the P/E ratio is a useful shorthand for how much investors are paying for each dollar of current earnings. Higher growth expectations and lower perceived risk usually support a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk often mean a lower "normal" or "fair" multiple.
Bristow Group currently trades on a P/E of 9.7x. That sits well below the Energy Services industry average P/E of 25.9x and the broader peer group average of 40.3x, which suggests the market is applying a much lower earnings multiple to Bristow Group than to many of its peers.
Simply Wall St also calculates a proprietary "Fair Ratio" for the P/E, which is 18.9x for Bristow Group. This Fair Ratio is designed to reflect the multiple you might expect given factors such as the company’s earnings growth profile, profit margins, industry, market cap and specific risks. Because it adjusts for these company level characteristics, it can be more tailored than a simple comparison with peer or industry averages.
Setting the current P/E of 9.7x against the Fair Ratio of 18.9x, Bristow Group screens as trading below that fair multiple on this approach.
Result: UNDERVALUED
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Bristow Group Narrative
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives. This is where you tell the story behind your numbers by linking your view of Bristow Group’s future revenue, earnings and margins to a financial forecast, a Fair Value and then a simple comparison with today’s price. All of this happens inside an easy tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page that updates when new news or earnings arrive. It lets different investors sit anywhere from a more cautious Fair Value of about US$45.00 to a more optimistic Fair Value around US$60.67, depending on how they see offshore contracts, government search and rescue work and advanced air mobility shaping the business.
Do you think there's more to the story for Bristow Group? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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