Accel Entertainment (ACEL) is back in focus after reporting fourth quarter and full year 2025 results, featuring record revenue, a near doubling of net income, and continued share repurchases that completed a multi year buyback program.
See our latest analysis for Accel Entertainment.
The earnings release and confirmation of the completed multi year buyback have come after a 90 day share price return of 16.43% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 19.86%. The current share price of $12.19 reflects a 7.21% year to date share price return, suggesting recent momentum has been building on top of longer term gains.
If this kind of earnings driven move has your attention, it could be a good moment to broaden your watchlist and check out 20 top founder-led companies as potential next ideas.
With record 2025 results on the table, a completed multi year buyback, and the stock trading below the average analyst price target, the key question now is whether ACEL still offers upside or if the market already reflects future growth.
Most Popular Narrative: 19.6% Undervalued
At a last close of $12.19 against a narrative fair value of $15.17, the most followed storyline around Accel Entertainment is firmly centered on upside potential and what would need to go right operationally to support it.
Expansion into new and developing markets, such as Nebraska, Georgia, Louisiana, and continued optimization in Nevada, positions Accel to capture incremental revenue growth as broader legalization and acceptance of gaming increases the total addressable market for distributed VGTs. This ongoing geographic diversification supports a sustained top-line revenue growth trajectory.
Curious how this expansion plan translates into the $15.17 fair value? Revenue, margins, and future earnings are all hard wired into the model. The exact mix might surprise you.
Result: Fair Value of $15.17 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, that upside story could quickly change if Illinois regulations tighten or if new markets like Louisiana fail to reach the margin assumptions built into the model.
Find out about the key risks to this Accel Entertainment narrative.
Another View: Cash Flows Paint A Tighter Picture
While the $15.17 narrative fair value points to upside, our DCF model takes a stricter view, with a future cash flow value of $11.10 versus the current $12.19 share price. On that basis, ACEL screens as expensive. Which signal you prioritize depends on how confident you are in those long term growth and margin assumptions.
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Accel Entertainment for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 47 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
If this mix of upside potential and pushback has you thinking, do not wait around. Weigh the trade off yourself by reviewing 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.
Looking for more investment ideas?
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- Hunt for quality at a sensible price with 47 high quality undervalued stocks that may line up with your return expectations and risk comfort.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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