Chemed (CHE) is back in focus after its fourth quarter and full year 2025 results came in below analyst expectations, with softer margins, cautious 2026 guidance, and operational pressure at both VITAS and Roto Rooter.
See our latest analysis for Chemed.
That earnings miss and softer 2026 guidance appear to be weighing on sentiment, with a 7 day share price return of 13.72% and a year long total shareholder return of 31.39% pointing to fading momentum despite the buyback activity.
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With earnings under pressure, cautious 2026 guidance and a share price that has already retreated, the key question is whether Chemed now trades at a discount or whether the market is already pricing in any future recovery.
Most Popular Narrative: 26.2% Undervalued
Chemed’s most followed valuation narrative sets a fair value of $555.50 per share, well above the recent $410.20 close, and bases that gap on long term hospice and cash flow assumptions that go beyond the latest quarter.
The ramp up of new Certificate of Need (CON) locations in underserved Florida counties (e.g., Pinellas and Marion) is expected to materially expand VITAS's service footprint, aligning with the continued aging U.S. population and the shift toward home based care, both key drivers of higher patient volumes and long term top line revenue growth.
Curious how that growth story translates into a higher fair value than today’s price? The narrative focuses on steadier revenue gains, firmer margins, and a richer future earnings multiple. The exact mix of those assumptions is where things get interesting.
Result: Fair Value of $555.50 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this hinges on VITAS managing Medicare cap exposure and Roto Rooter avoiding prolonged weak demand and higher costs, which could keep margins under pressure.
Find out about the key risks to this Chemed narrative.
Next Steps
If this mix of caution and optimism leaves you undecided, take prompt action to review the full picture and evaluate the company's potential using 3 key rewards.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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