- If you are wondering whether U-Haul Holding is starting to look appealing at its current share price, this article walks through what that price might really imply about value.
- The stock recently closed at US$48.81, with returns of 14.7% decline over 7 days, 10.9% decline over 30 days, 3.4% decline year to date, and 31.3% decline over 1 year, which may have changed how some investors view its risk and potential.
- Recent coverage around U-Haul often focuses on its core role in truck and trailer rentals and storage. This keeps attention on how its long standing brand translates into shareholder outcomes, and helps frame the recent share price moves as investors weigh the value of a mature, widely recognized operator in the self move and storage space.
- Right now, our valuation model gives U-Haul Holding a value score of 0 out of 6. Next we will walk through what different valuation approaches say about that figure, before finishing with a way to assess value that can be even more helpful than any single model.
U-Haul Holding scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
Approach 1: U-Haul Holding Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes estimates of the cash a business could generate in the future and discounts those back into today’s dollars, aiming to give you a single estimate of what the company might be worth right now.
For U-Haul Holding, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month free cash flow is reported as a loss of $1,752.16m. Looking ahead, one analyst estimate points to free cash flow of $204.80m in the year to March 2027, with further annual projections out to 2035 extrapolated by Simply Wall St rather than based on additional analyst forecasts.
Pulling all of those projected cash flows together, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $41.38 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $48.81, this implies U-Haul Holding is around 18.0% overvalued on this model.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests U-Haul Holding may be overvalued by 18.0%. Discover 52 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.
Approach 2: U-Haul Holding Price vs Earnings
For a company that is generating earnings, the P/E ratio is a straightforward way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of profit. It helps you compare how the market is pricing those earnings relative to other businesses.
What counts as a “normal” P/E depends a lot on what investors expect for growth and how much risk they see. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk usually goes with a lower P/E.
U-Haul Holding currently trades on a P/E of 74.41x. That is above the Transportation industry average P/E of about 39.22x and also above the peer average of 54.91x, which suggests the market is applying a richer earnings multiple than these broad benchmarks.
Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio is a proprietary estimate of what U-Haul Holding’s P/E “should” be, based on factors such as its earnings growth profile, profit margins, industry, market cap and key risks. This can be more useful than a simple peer or industry comparison, because it adjusts for the company’s own characteristics instead of treating all operators as identical.
In this case, the Fair Ratio is not provided, so you cannot directly compare it with the current 74.41x P/E to judge whether the stock looks overvalued, undervalued or about right on this metric.
Result: ABOUT RIGHT
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your U-Haul Holding Narrative
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives on Simply Wall St let you attach a clear story about U-Haul Holding to the numbers by linking your view on its future revenue, earnings and margins to a financial forecast, a fair value estimate and a simple comparison with the current share price. This is all within an accessible tool on the Community page that updates as new news or earnings arrive. You can see, for example, how one investor might anchor on a more cautious fair value of US$74.25 while another sees justification for US$120.00, and then decide for yourself where your own fair value sits on that spectrum.
Do you think there's more to the story for U-Haul Holding? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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