There's been a major selloff in Matrix Service Company (NASDAQ:MTRX) shares in the week since it released its quarterly report, with the stock down 23% to US$11.06. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$211m missing analyst predictions by 2.3%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$0.03 per share, a substantial decline on analyst expectations of a profit. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Matrix Service from twin analysts is for revenues of US$890.8m in 2026. If met, it would imply a reasonable 6.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Matrix Service forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.15 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$908.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.46 in 2026. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the pretty serious reduction to new EPS forecasts.
Check out our latest analysis for Matrix Service
The consensus price target held steady at US$16.50, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Matrix Service's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 13% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.3% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.3% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Matrix Service is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Matrix Service. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2027, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Matrix Service that you need to be mindful of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.