There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Amongst other things, we'll want to see two things; firstly, a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an expansion in the company's amount of capital employed. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. Having said that, from a first glance at Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) we aren't jumping out of our chairs at how returns are trending, but let's have a deeper look.
Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?
For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for Phillips 66, this is the formula:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.028 = US$1.6b ÷ (US$76b - US$20b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2025).
Therefore, Phillips 66 has an ROCE of 2.8%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Oil and Gas industry average of 9.4%.
View our latest analysis for Phillips 66
Above you can see how the current ROCE for Phillips 66 compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Phillips 66 for free.
How Are Returns Trending?
In terms of Phillips 66's historical ROCE movements, the trend isn't fantastic. To be more specific, ROCE has fallen from 4.0% over the last five years. And considering revenue has dropped while employing more capital, we'd be cautious. If this were to continue, you might be looking at a company that is trying to reinvest for growth but is actually losing market share since sales haven't increased.
The Bottom Line On Phillips 66's ROCE
We're a bit apprehensive about Phillips 66 because despite more capital being deployed in the business, returns on that capital and sales have both fallen. Since the stock has skyrocketed 142% over the last five years, it looks like investors have high expectations of the stock. In any case, the current underlying trends don't bode well for long term performance so unless they reverse, we'd start looking elsewhere.
One final note, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Phillips 66 (including 2 which shouldn't be ignored) .
If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.