As you might know, Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC) just kicked off its latest quarterly results with some very strong numbers. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 7.6% to hit US$34b. Marathon Petroleum also reported a statutory profit of US$3.96, which was an impressive 21% above what the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Marathon Petroleum after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the 13 analysts covering Marathon Petroleum provided consensus estimates of US$126.8b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a small 5.2% decline over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 4.2% to US$7.31. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$127.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.71 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.
See our latest analysis for Marathon Petroleum
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$181, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Marathon Petroleum analyst has a price target of US$213 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$142. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Marathon Petroleum shareholders.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 10% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 11% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.5% per year. It's pretty clear that Marathon Petroleum's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Marathon Petroleum's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Marathon Petroleum. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Marathon Petroleum going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Marathon Petroleum is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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