When you buy and hold a stock for the long term, you definitely want it to provide a positive return. But more than that, you probably want to see it rise more than the market average. But Western Digital Corporation (NASDAQ:WDC) has fallen short of that second goal, with a share price rise of 54% over five years, which is below the market return. However, if you include the dividends then the return is market beating. Zooming in, the stock is actually down 15% in the last year.
Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During the last half decade, Western Digital became profitable. That's generally thought to be a genuine positive, so investors may expect to see an increasing share price.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Western Digital has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Western Digital's TSR for the last 5 years was 104%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Western Digital provided a TSR of 13% over the year (including dividends). That's fairly close to the broader market return. We should note here that the five-year TSR is more impressive, at 15% per year. More recently, the share price growth has slowed. But it has to be said the overall picture is one of good long term and short term performance. Arguably that makes Western Digital a stock worth watching. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Western Digital has 2 warning signs (and 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) we think you should know about.
For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.