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Wondering whether to invest in Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO), Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), or BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares?

You're not alone.

Each of the three S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining stocks could prove to be an excellent long-term holding.

And each one trades on an attractive fully franked dividend yield.

As for their year-to-date returns, Rio Tinto shares closed up 0.96% on Thursday, trading for $108.62 each. That sees the Rio Tinto share price down 8.0% year to date.

Fortescue shares closed up 1.91% yesterday at $16.51. This leaves the Fortescue share price down 12% in 2025.

And BHP shares joined the rally, closing up 1.19% at $38.30 apiece. That sees shares in the ASX 200 mining giant down 4% year to date.

But looking to the months ahead, the analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) only expect one of the big three miners to outperform.

Should I buy Rio Tinto, Fortescue, or BHP shares?

In Macquarie's Diversified Miners report, published on Wednesday, the broker said it expects Rio Tinto to "to miss on iron ore [consensus expectations by] (-3%) and bauxite (-3%), with copper production largely in line (-2%)".

Macquarie has a neutral rating on Rio Tinto shares with a $105.00 price target. That's 3% below Thursday's closing price.

The broker expects Fortescue to beat consensus. "We forecast FMG to beat iron ore consensus by 10% at 57.1mt with realised pricing of US$82.0/t in line," it said.

Nonetheless, Macquarie maintained its neutral rating on Fortescue shares with a $15.00 price target, which is 9% below yesterday's closing price.

As for BHP shares, Macquarie also expects Australia's biggest miner to beat on iron ore, stating:

We expect BHP iron ore production to beat by 3% while metallurgical coal production to beat by 2%. We anticipate copper and thermal coal output to be in line with VA consensus at 500kt and 3.6mt, respectively.

Macquarie has an outperform rating on BHP shares with a $40.00 price target. That represents a potential upside of 4% from Thursday's closing price.

What else did Macquarie have to say about BHP?

Summarising its preference for BHP shares over rivals Rio Tinto and Fortescue, Macquarie said:

With BHP currently presenting a relatively more stable and execution focussed offering versus RIO (whilst the RIO CEO succession process reaches a conclusion), we are drawn to BHP's lower cost asset position and lower iron ore beta (with Simandou coming online).

Its near-term thinner FVCF [future value free cash flow] yield versus RIO may be ameliorated by asset or infrastructure sell downs to finance growth, whilst RIO's inorganic growth strategy is currently unclear, presenting a risk to investors.

The post Does Macquarie prefer Rio Tinto, Fortescue or BHP shares heading into 2026? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The Motley Fool's purpose is to help the world invest, better. Click here now for your free subscription to Take Stock, The Motley Fool's free investing newsletter. Packed with stock ideas and investing advice, it is essential reading for anyone looking to build and grow their wealth in the years ahead. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson. 2025