JPMorgan analyst Matthew R. Boss has updated quarterly models for some department store companies.
Here are his views on three retailers.
Kohl’s
Despite sales gains tied to in-store efforts like Sephora and Home Décor, Kohl’s Corporation (NYSE:KSS) continues to face revenue declines in several segments—apparel, footwear, and legacy homes.
The analyst also flagged structural risks to Kohl's store footprint, which makes up over half of U.S. department stores. Adjusted debt/EBITDAR ended 2023 at 3.6x—that’s well above the company's ~2.5x target. Continued same-store sales pressure and margin erosion is likely pushing leverage above 4x through 2024–26, based on JPMorgan estimates.
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Boss forecasts fiscal year 2025 EPS of 56 cents and fiscal year 2026 EPS of 53 cents, both above Street estimates of 41 cents and 47 cents, respectively.
The analyst maintains an Underweight rating on the stock with a price forecast of $8, unchanged.
Vail Resorts
Boss writes that Vail Resorts, Inc. (NYSE:MTN) may be approaching a turning point in revenue and earnings as FY25 winds down, helped by the return of former CEO Katz and unique growth drivers.
The analyst highlights the company’s premium resort portfolio, upfront revenue via its Epic Pass strategy, and a more resilient customer base of high-income, frequent skiers as key advantages.
Boss projects fiscal year 2025 adjusted EBITDA at $866 million and fiscal year 2026 at $908 million, both slightly above Street estimates.
The analyst keeps a Neutral rating on Vail Resorts, with a price forecast of $167.
Foot Locker
Boss notes that while Foot Locker, Inc. (NYSE:FL) has faced challenges from inconsistent same-store sales, increased promotions, and brand allocation changes—particularly with Nike, Inc. (NYSE:NKE)—Dick's Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS) aims to revamp the business through its $2.4 billion acquisition.
The deal is intended to create a larger global retail sports platform, strengthen brand partnerships, enhance omni-channel capabilities, and unlock synergies.
Boss models fiscal year 2025 EPS for Foot Locker at $1.10, ahead of the Street's $1.00, and projects fiscal year 2026 EPS to rise to $1.65.
The analyst reiterated the Neutral rating on the stock, with a price forecast of $24.
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