If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for? Firstly, we'll want to see a proven return on capital employed (ROCE) that is increasing, and secondly, an expanding base of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. However, after investigating Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG), we don't think it's current trends fit the mold of a multi-bagger.
We've discovered 3 warning signs about Harley-Davidson. View them for free.What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?
For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Harley-Davidson:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.043 = US$375m ÷ (US$12b - US$3.6b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2025).
Therefore, Harley-Davidson has an ROCE of 4.3%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Auto industry average of 6.3%.
Check out our latest analysis for Harley-Davidson
In the above chart we have measured Harley-Davidson's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Harley-Davidson for free.
The Trend Of ROCE
In terms of Harley-Davidson's historical ROCE movements, the trend isn't fantastic. To be more specific, ROCE has fallen from 8.2% over the last five years. And considering revenue has dropped while employing more capital, we'd be cautious. This could mean that the business is losing its competitive advantage or market share, because while more money is being put into ventures, it's actually producing a lower return - "less bang for their buck" per se.
On a side note, Harley-Davidson has done well to pay down its current liabilities to 29% of total assets. So we could link some of this to the decrease in ROCE. What's more, this can reduce some aspects of risk to the business because now the company's suppliers or short-term creditors are funding less of its operations. Some would claim this reduces the business' efficiency at generating ROCE since it is now funding more of the operations with its own money.
The Bottom Line
We're a bit apprehensive about Harley-Davidson because despite more capital being deployed in the business, returns on that capital and sales have both fallen. Despite the concerning underlying trends, the stock has actually gained 12% over the last five years, so it might be that the investors are expecting the trends to reverse. Regardless, we don't like the trends as they are and if they persist, we think you might find better investments elsewhere.
One more thing: We've identified 3 warning signs with Harley-Davidson (at least 1 which is a bit unpleasant) , and understanding these would certainly be useful.
While Harley-Davidson may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.