China Renewable Energy Investment Limited (HKG:987) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 29% gain and recovering from prior weakness. The bad news is that even after the stocks recovery in the last 30 days, shareholders are still underwater by about 6.8% over the last year.
After such a large jump in price, China Renewable Energy Investment's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 18.9x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 11x and even P/E's below 6x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.
As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at China Renewable Energy Investment over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Check out our latest analysis for China Renewable Energy Investment
Does Growth Match The High P/E?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, China Renewable Energy Investment would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 29%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 85% in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 18% shows it's an unpleasant look.
In light of this, it's alarming that China Renewable Energy Investment's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
The Final Word
The strong share price surge has got China Renewable Energy Investment's P/E rushing to great heights as well. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
We've established that China Renewable Energy Investment currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for China Renewable Energy Investment (of which 1 is a bit concerning!) you should know about.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than China Renewable Energy Investment. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.