Last week, you might have seen that Olaplex Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:OLPX) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.3% to US$1.27 in the past week. Revenues beat expectations, coming in 3.7% ahead of forecasts, and the company broke even on a statutory earnings per share (EPS) level. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, Olaplex Holdings' nine analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$420.8m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to fall to a breakeven level. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$418.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.01 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a EPS estimates.
Check out our latest analysis for Olaplex Holdings
There's been no real change to the consensus price target of US$1.99, with Olaplex Holdings seemingly executing in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Olaplex Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$4.00 and the most bearish at US$1.40 per share. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. From these estimates it looks as though the analysts expect the years of declining revenue to come to an end, given the flat forecast out to 2025. That would be a definite improvement, given that the past three years have seen revenue shrink 22% annually. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 4.3% annually. Although Olaplex Holdings' revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is still expected to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Olaplex Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Olaplex Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Olaplex Holdings (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.