The recent earnings posted by Global New Material International Holdings Limited (HKG:6616) were solid, but the stock didn't move as much as we expected. We believe that shareholders have noticed some concerning factors beyond the statutory profit numbers.
Examining Cashflow Against Global New Material International Holdings' Earnings
One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
Over the twelve months to December 2024, Global New Material International Holdings recorded an accrual ratio of 0.35. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow was a lot less than its statutory profit, which makes us doubt the utility of profit as a guide. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of CN¥641m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of CN¥242.2m. We saw that FCF was CN¥122m a year ago though, so Global New Material International Holdings has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On Global New Material International Holdings' Profit Performance
As we have made quite clear, we're a bit worried that Global New Material International Holdings didn't back up the last year's profit with free cashflow. For this reason, we think that Global New Material International Holdings' statutory profits may be a bad guide to its underlying earnings power, and might give investors an overly positive impression of the company. But at least holders can take some solace from the 23% per annum growth in EPS for the last three. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. If you want to do dive deeper into Global New Material International Holdings, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign that you should run your eye over to get a better picture of Global New Material International Holdings.
Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Global New Material International Holdings' profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.