As you might know, Pop Mart International Group Limited (HKG:9992) just kicked off its latest full-year results with some very strong numbers. Pop Mart International Group beat earnings, with revenues hitting CN¥13b, ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share outperforming analyst reckonings by a solid 15%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Following the latest results, Pop Mart International Group's 22 analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥22.4b in 2025. This would be a major 71% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 86% to CN¥4.37. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥21.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥4.07 in 2025. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment following the latest results, withthe analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and earnings.
See our latest analysis for Pop Mart International Group
It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for Pop Mart International Group 11% to HK$192on the back of these upgrades. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Pop Mart International Group at HK$237 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$152. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Pop Mart International Group shareholders.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Pop Mart International Group's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 71% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 33% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Pop Mart International Group is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Pop Mart International Group's earnings potential next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Pop Mart International Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You can also see our analysis of Pop Mart International Group's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.