As you might know, Adicon Holdings Limited (HKG:9860) last week released its latest annual, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with CN¥2.9b revenue coming in 6.1% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.07 missed the mark badly, arriving some 77% below what was expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Adicon Holdings' seven analysts is for revenues of CN¥3.16b in 2025. This would reflect a decent 8.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 383% to CN¥0.31. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥3.48b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.39 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a large cut to earnings per share numbers.
See our latest analysis for Adicon Holdings
It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 7.7% to HK$9.45. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Adicon Holdings at HK$12.60 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$7.18. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. For example, we noticed that Adicon Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 8.4% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 12% a year over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.0% per year. So while Adicon Holdings' revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is expected to grow at about the same rate as the overall industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Adicon Holdings. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Adicon Holdings' future valuation.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Adicon Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Adicon Holdings has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.