Intron Technology Holdings Limited (HKG:1760) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 9.1% to HK$1.30 in the week after its latest full-year results. Intron Technology Holdings beat revenue expectations by 5.1%, at CN¥6.7b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at CN¥0.19, some 6.4% short of analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Intron Technology Holdings from three analysts is for revenues of CN¥7.65b in 2025. If met, it would imply a notable 14% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 43% to CN¥0.27. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥7.18b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.41 in 2025. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Intron Technology Holdings after the latest results; even though they upped their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a large cut to per-share earnings expectations.
Check out our latest analysis for Intron Technology Holdings
The consensus price target was unchanged at HK$2.16, suggesting the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite some adjustments to profit and revenue forecasts. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Intron Technology Holdings at HK$2.36 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$1.91. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Intron Technology Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 14% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 26% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 13% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Intron Technology Holdings is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Intron Technology Holdings. They also upgraded their revenue forecasts, although the latest estimates suggest that Intron Technology Holdings will grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Intron Technology Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Intron Technology Holdings (of which 2 are a bit concerning!) you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.