Last week, you might have seen that Ming Yuan Cloud Group Holdings Limited (HKG:909) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.7% to HK$3.05 in the past week. The results weren't stellar - revenue fell 6.7% short of analyst estimates at CN¥1.4b, although statutory losses were a relative bright spot. The per-share loss was CN¥0.10, 13% smaller than the analysts were expecting prior to the result. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Following last week's earnings report, Ming Yuan Cloud Group Holdings' six analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be CN¥1.41b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 72% to CN¥0.029. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of CN¥1.57b and CN¥0.064 per share in losses. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a meaningful downgrade to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.
Check out our latest analysis for Ming Yuan Cloud Group Holdings
There was a decent 8.3% increase in the price target to HK$2.55, with the analysts clearly signalling that the expected reduction in losses is a positive, despite a weaker revenue outlook. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Ming Yuan Cloud Group Holdings analyst has a price target of HK$3.30 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$1.80. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.6% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 0.007% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 22% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Ming Yuan Cloud Group Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Yet - earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Ming Yuan Cloud Group Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Ming Yuan Cloud Group Holdings has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.