Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. (HKG:9633) missed earnings with its latest full-year results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Nongfu Spring missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of CN¥43b and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.08, falling short by 7.5% and 2.8% respectively. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Following the latest results, Nongfu Spring's 23 analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥49.6b in 2025. This would be a notable 16% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to climb 15% to CN¥1.24. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥53.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.27 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.
Check out our latest analysis for Nongfu Spring
The average price target climbed 5.9% to HK$38.41despite the reduced earnings forecasts, suggesting that this earnings impact could be a positive for the stock, once it passes. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Nongfu Spring, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$48.49 and the most bearish at HK$19.99 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 16% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 15% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 8.1% annually. So although Nongfu Spring is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Nongfu Spring. They also downgraded Nongfu Spring's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Nongfu Spring analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also see our analysis of Nongfu Spring's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.