Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited (HKG:914) just released its latest annual report and things are not looking great. Anhui Conch Cement reported an earnings miss, with CN¥91b revenues falling 20% short of analyst models, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.53 also coming in slightly below expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Following last week's earnings report, Anhui Conch Cement's twelve analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be CN¥91.7b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 46% to CN¥2.13. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥116.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.07 in 2025. It looks like there's been a meaningful change to the consensus view following the recent earnings report, with the analysts making a pretty serious reduction to to revenue forecasts and a small increase to to next year's earnings estimates.
Check out our latest analysis for Anhui Conch Cement
There's been no real change to the average price target of HK$26.11, with the lower revenue and higher earnings forecasts not expected to meaningfully impact the company's valuation over a longer timeframe. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Anhui Conch Cement, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$31.38 and the most bearish at HK$19.06 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Anhui Conch Cement shareholders.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Anhui Conch Cement's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's also worth noting that the years of declining revenue look to have come to an end, with the forecast stauing flat to the end of 2025. Historically, Anhui Conch Cement's top line has shrunk approximately 8.4% annually over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.7% per year. Although Anhui Conch Cement's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is still expected to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Anhui Conch Cement's earnings potential next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Still, earnings per share are more important to value creation for shareholders. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Anhui Conch Cement going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Anhui Conch Cement that you should be aware of.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.