There's been a notable change in appetite for Minth Group Limited (HKG:425) shares in the week since its full-year report, with the stock down 11% to HK$21.80. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CN¥23b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at CN¥2.02 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Following the latest results, Minth Group's 17 analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥26.5b in 2025. This would be a decent 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to expand 18% to CN¥2.37. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥28.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.40 in 2025. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.
See our latest analysis for Minth Group
The analysts have also increased their price target 12% to HK$27.16, clearly signalling that lower revenue forecasts next year are not expected to have a material impact on Minth Group's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Minth Group analyst has a price target of HK$39.96 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$15.44. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Minth Group'shistorical trends, as the 14% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 14% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 11% annually. So it's pretty clear that Minth Group is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also downgraded Minth Group's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Minth Group analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Minth Group is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.