Investors in COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd. (HKG:1919) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.3% to close at HK$12.52 following the release of its yearly results. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of CN¥234b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 2.4% to hit CN¥3.08 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the seven analysts covering COSCO SHIPPING Holdings provided consensus estimates of CN¥204.0b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a definite 13% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to tumble 47% to CN¥1.66 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥206.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.71 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
View our latest analysis for COSCO SHIPPING Holdings
The consensus price target held steady at HK$12.31, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values COSCO SHIPPING Holdings at HK$14.69 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$8.50. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await COSCO SHIPPING Holdings shareholders.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 13% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 4.8% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue decline 3.3% annually for the foreseeable future. So it's pretty clear that COSCO SHIPPING Holdings' revenues are expected to shrink faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for COSCO SHIPPING Holdings. They also made no changes to their revenue estimates, implying the business is not expected to experience any major impacts to the current trajectory in the near term, even though it is expected to trail the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$12.31, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for COSCO SHIPPING Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable) you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.