Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited (HKG:3868) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
What Is Xinyi Energy Holdings's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at December 2024 Xinyi Energy Holdings had debt of CN¥7.33b, up from CN¥5.70b in one year. However, it does have CN¥397.4m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥6.93b.
How Strong Is Xinyi Energy Holdings' Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Xinyi Energy Holdings had liabilities of CN¥3.18b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥5.99b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥397.4m as well as receivables valued at CN¥4.51b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥4.25b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Xinyi Energy Holdings has a market capitalization of CN¥7.66b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
Check out our latest analysis for Xinyi Energy Holdings
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Xinyi Energy Holdings has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.2 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 4.3 times. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. The good news is that Xinyi Energy Holdings improved its EBIT by 4.1% over the last twelve months, thus gradually reducing its debt levels relative to its earnings. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Xinyi Energy Holdings can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Xinyi Energy Holdings burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
Mulling over Xinyi Energy Holdings's attempt at converting EBIT to free cash flow, we're certainly not enthusiastic. Having said that, its ability to grow its EBIT isn't such a worry. Once we consider all the factors above, together, it seems to us that Xinyi Energy Holdings's debt is making it a bit risky. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but we'd generally feel more comfortable with less leverage. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Xinyi Energy Holdings (including 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) .
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.