It's been a good week for China Resources Power Holdings Company Limited (HKG:836) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 3.6% to HK$18.88. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of HK$105b and statutory earnings per share of HK$2.97. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Following last week's earnings report, China Resources Power Holdings' 17 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be HK$107.2b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 8.1% to HK$3.01. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of HK$112.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of HK$3.25 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.
Check out our latest analysis for China Resources Power Holdings
The analysts made no major changes to their price target of HK$22.62, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on China Resources Power Holdings' valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values China Resources Power Holdings at HK$27.12 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$18.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that China Resources Power Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 10% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.2% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that China Resources Power Holdings is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for China Resources Power Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for China Resources Power Holdings you should be aware of, and 1 of them doesn't sit too well with us.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.