VCREDIT Holdings Limited (HKG:2003) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 36% gain in the last month alone. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 40% in the last year.
Even after such a large jump in price, VCREDIT Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 5.6x might still make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 11x and even P/E's above 22x are quite common. However, the P/E might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
For instance, VCREDIT Holdings' receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the disappointing earnings performance to continue or accelerate, which has repressed the P/E. However, if this doesn't eventuate then existing shareholders may be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
Check out our latest analysis for VCREDIT Holdings
Is There Any Growth For VCREDIT Holdings?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should underperform the market for P/E ratios like VCREDIT Holdings' to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 46%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 72% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 21% shows it's an unpleasant look.
With this information, we are not surprised that VCREDIT Holdings is trading at a P/E lower than the market. However, we think shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as recent earnings trends are already weighing down the shares.
The Final Word
VCREDIT Holdings' stock might have been given a solid boost, but its P/E certainly hasn't reached any great heights. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
We've established that VCREDIT Holdings maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its sliding earnings over the medium-term, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
It is also worth noting that we have found 4 warning signs for VCREDIT Holdings (2 don't sit too well with us!) that you need to take into consideration.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on VCREDIT Holdings, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.