Generally speaking long term investing is the way to go. But no-one is immune from buying too high. For example, after five long years the Hengan International Group Company Limited (HKG:1044) share price is a whole 63% lower. That is extremely sub-optimal, to say the least.
While the stock has risen 3.8% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.
Check out our latest analysis for Hengan International Group
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During the five years over which the share price declined, Hengan International Group's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 3.8% each year. Readers should note that the share price has fallen faster than the EPS, at a rate of 18% per year, over the period. This implies that the market is more cautious about the business these days. The less favorable sentiment is reflected in its current P/E ratio of 8.03.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Hengan International Group has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Hengan International Group the TSR over the last 5 years was -53%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
Hengan International Group shareholders are down 5.3% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 35%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. However, the loss over the last year isn't as bad as the 9% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last half decade. We'd need to see some sustained improvements in the key metrics before we could muster much enthusiasm. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Hengan International Group better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Hengan International Group that you should be aware of before investing here.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.