As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But if you try your hand at stock picking, you risk returning less than the market. We regret to report that long term Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd. (HKG:1618) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 35% in three years, versus a market decline of about 0.7%. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 13% in the last three months.
Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.
Check out our latest analysis for Metallurgical Corporation of China
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the three years that the share price fell, Metallurgical Corporation of China's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 13% each year. The 13% average annual share price decline is remarkably close to the EPS decline. So it seems that investor expectations of the company are staying pretty steady, despite the disappointment. It seems like the share price is reflecting the declining earnings per share.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
This free interactive report on Metallurgical Corporation of China's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Metallurgical Corporation of China's TSR for the last 3 years was -24%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
Metallurgical Corporation of China provided a TSR of 9.6% over the last twelve months. But that was short of the market average. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 5% per year over five year. This could indicate that the company is winning over new investors, as it pursues its strategy. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Metallurgical Corporation of China that you should be aware of before investing here.
Of course Metallurgical Corporation of China may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.