VCREDIT Holdings Limited (HKG:2003) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 27% after a shaky period beforehand. Taking a wider view, although not as strong as the last month, the full year gain of 11% is also fairly reasonable.
Even after such a large jump in price, VCREDIT Holdings may still be sending very bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 4.2x, since almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios greater than 10x and even P/E's higher than 20x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
For example, consider that VCREDIT Holdings' financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think the company won't do enough to avoid underperforming the broader market in the near future. However, if this doesn't eventuate then existing shareholders may be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
Check out our latest analysis for VCREDIT Holdings
How Is VCREDIT Holdings' Growth Trending?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as depressed as VCREDIT Holdings' is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market decidedly.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 46%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 72% in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 22% shows it's an unpleasant look.
With this information, we are not surprised that VCREDIT Holdings is trading at a P/E lower than the market. However, we think shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.
What We Can Learn From VCREDIT Holdings' P/E?
VCREDIT Holdings' recent share price jump still sees its P/E sitting firmly flat on the ground. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
As we suspected, our examination of VCREDIT Holdings revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term are contributing to its low P/E, given the market is set to grow. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 4 warning signs for VCREDIT Holdings (2 don't sit too well with us!) that you need to be mindful of.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.