While XD Inc. (HKG:2400) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 13% in the last quarter. Despite this, the stock is a strong performer over the last year, no doubt about that. Indeed, the share price is up an impressive 151% in that time. So it may be that the share price is simply cooling off after a strong rise. Investors should be wondering whether the business itself has the fundamental value required to continue to drive gains.
In light of the stock dropping 6.2% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive one-year return.
Check out our latest analysis for XD
We don't think that XD's modest trailing twelve month profit has the market's full attention at the moment. We think revenue is probably a better guide. Generally speaking, we'd consider a stock like this alongside loss-making companies, simply because the quantum of the profit is so low. For shareholders to have confidence a company will grow profits significantly, it must grow revenue.
In the last year XD saw its revenue grow by 7.4%. That's not great considering the company is losing money. So we wouldn't have expected the share price to rise by 151%. We're happy that investors have made money, though we wonder if the increase will be sustained. We're not so sure that revenue growth is driving the market optimism about the stock.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. You can see what analysts are predicting for XD in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
A Different Perspective
We're pleased to report that XD shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 151% over one year. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 6%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for XD that you should be aware of.
XD is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.