The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Legend Holdings Corporation (HKG:3396) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Legend Holdings
What Is Legend Holdings's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2024 Legend Holdings had CN¥164.1b of debt, an increase on CN¥152.4b, over one year. However, it also had CN¥96.7b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥67.4b.
How Healthy Is Legend Holdings' Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Legend Holdings had liabilities of CN¥459.1b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥121.5b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥96.7b in cash and CN¥119.7b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥364.3b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit casts a shadow over the CN¥18.8b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Legend Holdings would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
While Legend Holdings has a quite reasonable net debt to EBITDA multiple of 2.2, its interest cover seems weak, at 1.7. This does have us wondering if the company pays high interest because it is considered risky. In any case, it's safe to say the company has meaningful debt. One way Legend Holdings could vanquish its debt would be if it stops borrowing more but continues to grow EBIT at around 12%, as it did over the last year. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Legend Holdings can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Legend Holdings generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 81% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.
Our View
On the face of it, Legend Holdings's interest cover left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it's pretty decent at converting EBIT to free cash flow; that's encouraging. Once we consider all the factors above, together, it seems to us that Legend Holdings's debt is making it a bit risky. Some people like that sort of risk, but we're mindful of the potential pitfalls, so we'd probably prefer it carry less debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that Legend Holdings is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.