Kaisa Capital Investment Holdings Limited (HKG:936) shares have retraced a considerable 37% in the last month, reversing a fair amount of their solid recent performance. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 39% in that time.
Although its price has dipped substantially, Kaisa Capital Investment Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 28.9x might still make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 10x and even P/E's below 5x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
It looks like earnings growth has deserted Kaisa Capital Investment Holdings recently, which is not something to boast about. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the benign earnings growth will improve to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
See our latest analysis for Kaisa Capital Investment Holdings
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Kaisa Capital Investment Holdings would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company's bottom line as the year before. That's essentially a continuation of what we've seen over the last three years, as its EPS growth has been virtually non-existent for that entire period. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has definitely eluded the company recently.
This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 23% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.
With this information, we find it concerning that Kaisa Capital Investment Holdings is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Bottom Line On Kaisa Capital Investment Holdings' P/E
A significant share price dive has done very little to deflate Kaisa Capital Investment Holdings' very lofty P/E. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that Kaisa Capital Investment Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
Plus, you should also learn about these 4 warning signs we've spotted with Kaisa Capital Investment Holdings (including 2 which are potentially serious).
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.
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