Matrix Holdings Limited (HKG:1005) shares have had a horrible month, losing 27% after a relatively good period beforehand. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 44% share price drop.
In spite of the heavy fall in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Matrix Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.7x is worth a mention when it essentially matches the median P/S in Hong Kong's Leisure industry. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.
Check out our latest analysis for Matrix Holdings
What Does Matrix Holdings' P/S Mean For Shareholders?
As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Matrix Holdings over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing revenue performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from falling. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Matrix Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For Matrix Holdings?
Matrix Holdings' P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.
Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 22%. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 42% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.
Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 10% shows it's an unpleasant look.
With this information, we find it concerning that Matrix Holdings is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.
The Bottom Line On Matrix Holdings' P/S
Matrix Holdings' plummeting stock price has brought its P/S back to a similar region as the rest of the industry. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
We find it unexpected that Matrix Holdings trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Matrix Holdings (2 are potentially serious) you should be aware of.
If you're unsure about the strength of Matrix Holdings' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.