Aeso Holding Limited's (HKG:8341) stock showed strength, with investors undeterred by its weak earnings report. We think that shareholders might be missing some concerning factors that our analysis found.
See our latest analysis for Aeso Holding
Zooming In On Aeso Holding's Earnings
Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
For the year to September 2024, Aeso Holding had an accrual ratio of 0.32. We can therefore deduce that its free cash flow fell well short of covering its statutory profit, suggesting we might want to think twice before putting a lot of weight on the latter. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of HK$11m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of HK$8.52m. It's worth noting that Aeso Holding generated positive FCF of HK$13m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past. The good news for shareholders is that Aeso Holding's accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. As a result, some shareholders may be looking for stronger cash conversion in the current year.
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Aeso Holding.
Our Take On Aeso Holding's Profit Performance
Aeso Holding's accrual ratio for the last twelve months signifies cash conversion is less than ideal, which is a negative when it comes to our view of its earnings. Because of this, we think that it may be that Aeso Holding's statutory profits are better than its underlying earnings power. In further bad news, its earnings per share decreased in the last year. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Aeso Holding at this point in time. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Aeso Holding you should know about.
Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Aeso Holding's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.