China Qidian Guofeng Holdings Limited (HKG:1280) shareholders have seen the share price descend 12% over the month. But in three years the returns have been great. Indeed, the share price is up a very strong 151% in that time. To some, the recent share price pullback wouldn't be surprising after such a good run. Only time will tell if there is still too much optimism currently reflected in the share price.
In light of the stock dropping 12% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive three-year return.
Check out our latest analysis for China Qidian Guofeng Holdings
Because China Qidian Guofeng Holdings made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
In the last 3 years China Qidian Guofeng Holdings saw its revenue shrink by 1.3% per year. So we wouldn't have expected the share price to gain 36% per year, but it has. It's a good reminder that expectations about the future, not the past history, always impact share prices.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..
A Different Perspective
Investors in China Qidian Guofeng Holdings had a tough year, with a total loss of 23%, against a market gain of about 15%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 4%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with China Qidian Guofeng Holdings , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
China Qidian Guofeng Holdings is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.