It is doubtless a positive to see that the China Feihe Limited (HKG:6186) share price has gained some 56% in the last three months. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been less than pleasing. In fact, the share price is down 53% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.
With the stock having lost 5.9% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.
See our latest analysis for China Feihe
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
China Feihe saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 25% per year, over the last three years. This change in EPS is reasonably close to the 22% average annual decrease in the share price. So it seems like sentiment towards the stock hasn't changed all that much over time. In this case, it seems that the EPS is guiding the share price.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
This free interactive report on China Feihe's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, China Feihe's TSR for the last 3 years was -43%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
We're pleased to report that China Feihe shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 27% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 3%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. Importantly, we haven't analysed China Feihe's dividend history. This free visual report on its dividends is a must-read if you're thinking of buying.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.